IF YOU EVER GET THE FEELING that you want to be a central banker, lie down until the feeling passes. Consider the problem of Federal Reserve Board chairman Ben Bernanke as he decides whether the economy is headed towards recession, in which case he should lower interest rates; whether inflation is taking hold, in which case he should raise them; or whether steady-as-she-goes might not be the wisest course.

Bernanke has made it known that he and his monetary policy committee will be guided by incoming data. So let’s look at those numbers.