JOHN EDWARDS has a problem even if he wins the South Carolina primary today.

He has targeted South Carolina as his “breakthrough” state and for good reason: It happens to be his home state, and it shares a border with North Carolina, which he has represented in the Senate since 1998. If Edwards is unable to win in South Carolina, his candidacy is over. But if he wins, it will be easy to discount the vote for him as an expression of Carolina pride. It will be a victory but with an asterisk, and Edwards will have to hope some other state provides–and soon–his first unqualified triumph.