All is quiet on the Washington front. But don’t let the lull in partisan warfare fool you. In two weeks Congress returns from its summer recess, after hearing from constituents who hold the institution in lower esteem than used car salesmen, and view eating Brussels sprouts, enduring traffic jams, and having colonoscopies less daunting prospects than continuing to watch this Congress in action. Nevertheless, few members of this despised institution are likely to lose their seats in November. Turn the rascals out, but not my rascal, seems to be the prevailing view.

Which means that virtually the same crowd that has taken America to the brink of the fiscal cliff in the past will be confronting a president who is more determined than ever to bend Congress to his will. And more confident that he can, since word is seeping out of Republican meetings that threats to close down the government are bluffs, issued by a few bellicose congressmen aiming to grab some headlines in preparation for a run at the Republican presidential nomination.