Republican delegates plotting against Donald Trump arrive in Cleveland this week to make a final stand against his nomination.
The anti-Trump forces face long odds in their bid to block the New York businessman from formally accepting the Republican presidential nomination in a vote of delegates on the convention floor.
Randy Evans, a Georgia delegate whipping for Trump, tells the Washington Examiner that 888 delegates are committed to Trump, and another 901 are loyal to Republican National Committee leadership, which steadfastly supports Trump.
If accurate, Trump has well more than the 1,237 delegates needed to secure the nomination — regardless of whether they vote their conscience or are bound to the winner of the primary in their state.
Importantly, Evans’ whip count also would mean that Trump has more than the two-thirds support of all delegates he needs to kill any action to block his nomination on the floor of Quicken Loans Arena.
But convention delegates working to derail Trump can’t be dismissed just yet. They have a strategy, plus funding and more political organization behind them than previously anticipated.
They are led by “Delegates Unbound,” a professionally-run 501(c)4 group, and “Free the Delegates,” a grassroots coalition of delegates. The two organizations are coordinating, with Delegates unbound running point.
Dane Waters, a Republican strategist helming Delegates Unbound, said his group planned Sunday to open a war room in Cleveland and deploy a team of 15 operatives dedicated to whipping against Trump.
Their endgame hinges on forcing a rules change that would unbind the delegates from the winner of their state’s primary and allow them to vote their conscience on the convention floor when the nomination roll call is held.
“The delegates deserve to have their voices heard,” said Kendal Unruh, a Colorado delegate who opposes Trump and is the driving force behind Free the Delegates.
“I totally support the binding of the delegates,” countered Iowa delegate Steve Scheffler.
Trump is set to accept the Republican presidential nomination at the party’s national convention that begins July 18.
Trump outlasted 16 other Republicans in the 2016 primary and was deemed the presumptive nominee after defeating Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and Ohio Gov. John Kasich on May 3 in Indiana.
But Trump has misfired several times since.
The reality television star got into hot water for racially charged remarks directed at a federal judge, was panned for his response to the Orlando terrorist attack, and ended May with almost no money in his campaign account to spend against Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Those missteps are fueling Republicans who opposed Trump over ideology and his conduct on the trail and further motivating their last ditch effort to upend his nomination.
Unruh is promising action on the convention floor to broadcast their opposition to Trump. If nothing else, it would be a media spectacle that presents to voters the image of a deeply divided party. “I can absolutely unequivocally guarantee you that’s going to happen,” Unruh said.
But much depends on what her side accomplishes in the convention rules committee, set to meet Thursday and Friday of this week.
They will propose an amendment, or “minority report,” to the rules governing the convention that would force a floor vote of all the delegates on whether they should be unbound from the winner of their state’s primary and allowed to vote their conscience.
Unruh, who represents the Cruz-friendly Colorado delegation on the rules committee, insists she has the 28 votes (out of 112) needed to pass the amendment. Evans, who like Scheffler also sits on rules, said his whip count pegs “minority report” supporters at 18 to 20.
Delegates tell the Examiner that the Trump campaign and RNC leadership are working furiously behind the scenes to kill the amendment in the rules committee. RNC spokeswoman Lindsay Walters insisted that party leadership is taking a hands-off approach and will allow the rules panel to work its will.
In an interview Friday, Waters, of Delegates Unbound, was optimistic about the prospects of passing the minority report through the rules committee. He declined to provide an estimated whip count, saying that he didn’t “want to disclose the size of our army before battle.”
“We want to make sure that delegates exercise their authority to vote their conscience,” he said. “We want to make sure the country, and the rest of the world, understands that not every delegate is in lockstep with Trump.”
Trump supporter and rules committee member Bill Palatucci doesn’t appear concerned. Palatucci is a close confidant of Gov. Chris Christie, a Trump ally under consideration to be his running mate.
Palatucci compared the anti-Trump movement to the effort of Ron Paul supporters four years ago in Tampa, Fla., to have the former Texas congressman’s name formally placed into nomination. They failed, although they created a bit of stir on the convention floor when they were shut down by the presiding chair.
“I do find the situation similar to the one we experienced in 2012,” Palatucci said in an email. “There’s a minority of delegates who wish to see some changes to the rules and their amendments will be heard, debated and considered by the full committee. I don’t expect any major changes, especially the proposal to unbind all delegates.”
Gaming out delegate action at the convention is tricky.
There hasn’t been a contested convention since 1976, when President Gerald Ford fended off a primary challenge by Ronald Reagan on the first ballot. Paul Manafort, Trump’s top campaign lieutanant, wrangled delegates for Ford in that contest.
In the modern era, even convention delegates, who are technically charged with nominating their party’s candidate through their votes, have come to accept the concept of binding, viewing the primaries and caucuses as the true arbiter of the presidential nominating contest.
So there are many Republican delegates — perhaps a 1,237 majority — who preferred another candidate to Trump but who might never cast a vote in Cleveland that they would view as overruling the will of GOP voters in their states.
That dynamic is a crucial political challenge facing the dump Trump campaign being waged by the delegates who oppose him.
“I was all for beating Trump during the primary, but he won it and it’s over. Folks need to get over it,” said a delegate and rules committee member who requested anonymity in order to speak candidly. “Of course, he needs to unite us, but I am totally opposed to any effort to steal the nomination from the person who won it with the voters.”
Most presumptive nominees begin pre-convention week in command of their party.
But many elected Republicans continue to outright reject Trump and refuse to endorse him, while public opinion polls show weaker support for Trump overall among GOP voters than is normal for a presumptive nominee. Clinton, the presumptive Democratic nominee, leads Trump nationally by nearly 5 percentage points, according to the latest RealClearPolitics average.
That puts Trump in a potentially precarious position with convention delegates and explains why his campaign and, according to anti-Trump delegates, RNC officials are working so hard to kill the minority report in the rules committee.
The panel is comprised of 112 members, two from each state and U.S. territory, as selected by their delegations. The chairman of the rules committee was appointed by RNC Chairman Reince Priebus. Lobbying of committee members has been intense by both sides, Unruh, Scheffler, and Waters said in interviews.
Scheffler said advertisements were run against him in Iowa; Unruh and Waters said they’ve been both subtly and overtly threatened, both professionally and personally. Unruh said that this is why she’s not publicizing her full whip check of 28 or more members prepared to vote for the minority report.
When the committee gavels to order on Thursday, two delegates to watch could be Sen. Mike Lee and his wife Sharon Lee. They represent the Utah delegation on rules, and their support for the minority report could embolden others who want to back it but are wavering under pressure from the opposition.
Lee backed Cruz in the primary and has since refused to endorse Trump, despite pressure from some quarters on the right. Anti-Trump delegates aren’t pushing a specific replacement for Trump. Opponents believe this is their fatal flaw, although they contend it allows their movement to be more broad-based.
Lee could provide a respected, institutional voice to Trump opponents on rules, and on the convention floor, giving their mission a better chance of success. Lee was unavailable for comment on Friday. “Lee is a key factor in everything that happens on rules,” a Republican insider said.
Erick Erickson, a conservative activist and radio talk show host who opposes Trump, wrote on his blog, “The Resurgent,” last week that his anti-Trump delegate sources believe they basically have the votes to clear the minority report through rules.
“I can report that several of the delegates tell me that there are now private assurances from 27 members of the rules committee that they will publicly support a measure to allow the delegates to vote their conscience. They need one more for a minority report to make it to the floor,” Erickson wrote.
