Predicting which Guantanamo detainees will, or will not, become a recidivist is a tricky business. The U.S. government – under both the Bush and Obama administrations – has transferred “high risk” detainees to third countries. In some cases, “high risk” detainees who have been transferred have not, to our knowledge, rejoined the jihad. 

In other cases, Guantanamo’s analysts have been eerily prescient. Consider the newly leaked case file on Yousef al Shihri. The July 21, 2006 assessment reads (emphasis added):