GOING INTO THE FINAL DAY of the college football regular season, Oklahoma was undefeated and ranked Number 1. The Sooners had the best defense in the nation, had outscored their opponents by an average of 35 points and had a 9-game winning streak against ranked teams. “OU: Among best ever?” USA Today asked (rhetorically) on Friday. Kansas State, by contrast, had three losses, and had never won a Big 12 championship. Oklahoma was favored by two touchdowns. Kansas State, of course, won, 35-7.

For the next 11 months, Republicans, conservatives, and Bush campaign operatives should, on arising, immediately following their morning prayers, repeat that score aloud 10 times. Underdogs do sometimes win. Howard Dean could beat President Bush. Saying you’re not overconfident (as the OU players repeatedly did) is no substitute for really not being overconfident. And if Bush loses next November, it’s over. There’s no BCS computer to give him another shot at the national championship in the Sugar Bowl.