INFLATION IS BACK, or it isn’t. The dollar is back, or it isn’t. There is a dangerous housing bubble, or there isn’t. The trade deficit is worrying, or it isn’t. The Fed is about to become more aggressive in raising interest rates, or it isn’t. The economy is headed for steady, high growth, or it isn’t. That’s the clear consensus of America’s economists and market watchers.

Start with inflation. The Federal Reserve Board’s monetary policy committee continued its measured, quarter-point increases in short-term rates. But it noted that the economy has moved from “moderate” to “solid” growth, and that inflation is no longer “relatively low.” And the day after the Fed meeting, the government announced that the core inflation rate (excluding food and energy) has hit 2.4 percent, its highest level since May 2002.