In almost any other scenario, describing someone who is down 40-50 points in national polls as “rising” would likely elicit a description akin to “delusional.” Still, this is Republican Party politics in the Trump era, and with looming indictments and nary a vote cast in a primary, as the late Yankees great Yogi Berra would say, “It ain’t over till it’s over.”

Nikki Haley, the first candidate not named Donald Trump to enter the race for the 2024 nomination, is the Republican candidate showing the most gains over the last couple of months. There is a path for her to get the nomination, but it is razor-thin and relies in part on circumstances beyond her control.