There are nine key swing states in this election (Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Nevada), with four other states (particularly Michigan, which President Obama must win, and North Carolina, which Mitt Romney must win) that also have some potential to come into play in a tight race.  So far, Rasmussen Reports is the only nonpartisan polling outfit that has conducted likely-voter surveys over the past two months in at least eight of those nine key swing states. Based on that polling, and assuming that the other states would go as expected, President Obama is currently on course for 290 electoral votes (and reelection), while Mitt Romney is on course for 222 — with ties in Virginia and Colorado (and no recent polling available in New Hampshire).

Rasmussen’s polling shows Obama up by 2 points (48 to 46 percent) in Florida, 1 point (47 to 46 percent) in Ohio, 4 points (48 to 44 percent) in Pennsylvania, and 5 points (50 to 45 percent) in Nevada.  It shows Romney up by 1 point (48 to 47 percent) in Wisconsin and 2 points (46 to 44 percent) in Iowa.