Increasingly, pundits are incorporating statistical models into their analysis of the 2012 election. While I was once a purveyor of such predictive models, I really am not anymore. I don’t want to bore you with all the wonky details of my flip-flop, but I do want to give you an example of why you should feel comfortable evaluating these models yourselves, based on common sense.

Writing at Larry Sabato’s Center for Politics, Alan Abramowitz uses presidential job approval in May of the election year to derive estimates of final results in November. He concludes: