Polls Predict Big GOP Gains in Congress (Updated)

For Republicans, poll numbers have never looked better prior to a midterm election than they do today. “You’ve got to pinch yourself every time you look at the data,” says pollster Neil Newhouse. A Republican victory “could be bigger than anyone thinks.”

But how predictive are the numbers? Are they reliable enough, assuming they don’t change significantly in the 2.5 months before the November 2 election, that we should expect a massive Republican sweep?