Independent voters are becoming a major headache for Republican strategists inside of 100 days until the midterm elections.
This crucial bloc is frowning on President Trump and showing signs of resisting Republican leadership of the Congress, according to public opinion polls. If that sentiment hardens and independents throw their votes to the Democrats, the GOP could suffer a titanic defeat on Nov. 6. Republicans charged with holding the line are beginning to worry.
“When you get a wave, it’s because independents went decisively one way or the other. Has that begun to occur or are they thinking through things?” said David Winston, a Republican pollster who counsels the party’s congressional leadership. “Independents aren’t fans of partisan debate, just: ‘Here are the problems I’m facing — what are you going to do about it?’”
For Republicans, independent voters could be the difference between a sub-par midterm election, or a wave that sweeps the party out of power in one or both chambers of Congress.
In 1994, President Bill Clinton’s first midterm election, when Republicans captured the House and Senate in a historic wave, they won independents by 12 points. In 2006, President George W. Bush’s second midterm election, when Democrats reclaimed Congress, they won independents by 18 points. Just four years later, when Republicans won the House and seven Senate seats in President Barack Obama’s first midterm election, independents swung to the GOP by 16 points.
On that front, recent polling carried an unambiguous warning for the Republicans.
Among independents, Trump’s job approval rating was a paltry 36 percent; and the Democrats enjoyed a yawning 22-point lead, 48 percent to 26 percent, in the generic ballot in the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll conducted July 15-18. Among all voters in this survey, the president’s approval rating was 45 percent and the Democrats’ generic-ballot lead was, at 49 percent to 43 percent, a manageable 6 points, for the GOP.
But independents haven’t made up their mind — yet. In the Economist/YouGov survey conducted July 29-31, 26 percent were undecided on the generic ballot question. Among those who picked a side, Republicans led Democrats 34 percent to 28 percent. Those numbers show both the possibilities, and peril, for the GOP as Election Day approaches.
“We can’t let independents harden against us,” a Republican strategist said. “There’s no coming back from that.”
The national generic ballot gauging which party voters prefer be in charge on Capitol Hill has generally favored the Democrats. On Thursday, the RealClearPolitics average of recent polls showed the Democrats with a solid 7 percentage-point advantage. Trump’s average job approval rating was 43.5 percent.
Republicans have always believed both were surmountable — that the party could overcome a generic-ballot deficit of as much as 7 points, approximately, plus Trump’s low ratings, and hold onto enough House seats, amid losses, to retain the majority. Indeed, Republicans and even some Democrats predict the GOP might actually gains Senate seats under such a scenario.
If independents are as critical to the outcome of the midterm elections as they have been in the past, and if independent voters are as turned off by partisan politics as Winston’s analyses suggest, Trump could be a real anchor on his party, at least in the House. That’s despite a growing economy that voters have given Trump credit for in polls, even as they have graded him low overall.
The president, in a move GOP strategists say is a play to topple red-state Democrats running for re-election to the Senate, is prosecuting a culture-war campaign that appeals to the conservative base. It’s just the sort of approach that has Democrats confident about winning control of the House — a battle that runs through suburban America where independents are poised to tip the scales.
“’Teflon Don’ is the worst media trope! He is toxic with the independent and moderate voters who will decide these swing districts,” a Democratic operative said.
