SOME OF THE FOG that has been making economists’ crystal-ball gazing more difficult than usual seems to be lifting, enabling us to sketch what the rest of 2006 might look like.

We can safely assume that President Bush has written off any chance of major progress in the Doha round of trade-opening talks, and decided to move cutting the budget deficit up on his list of legislative priorities. That is clear from the fact that he has moved Rob Portman, the U.S. Trade Representative, over to the Office of Management and Budget (OMB). It is hoped that the former congressman’s popularity and his reputation as a budget balancer will enable him to rally the fractured Republican majority to support the president’s spending cuts. Portman’s former deputy, and now his successor, Susan Schwab, is able, but unlikely to carry as much weight with free-trade skeptics in Congress as Portman did. If you doubt that Doha has been derailed, consider the chortle of Lori Wallach, representative of a group opposed to further trade-opening, who told the press, “This does not bode well–ha, ha, ha!–for Bush’s trade agenda. What a tragedy!”