It’s becoming increasingly hard to say whether Newt Gingrich or Mitt Romney, the two leading Republican presidential candidates, would fare better against Barack Obama. The latest Rasmussen poll of likely voters shows Gingrich trailing Obama by just 6 percentage points — 46 to 40 percent. Less than a month and a half ago, Gingrich trailed Obama by 15 points (49 to 34 percent). Meanwhile, Romney trails Obama by just 1 point — 43 to 42 percent.

Taking the longer view, Romney has been remarkably consistent in his matchups with Obama. Across 11 Rasmussen surveys of likely voters over the past six months, Romney has always been within a 6-point range versus Obama — between 38 and 44 percent. Likewise, Obama has always been within a 6-point range versus Romney — between 40 and 46 percent. However, with his slightly higher levels of support, Obama has gone 7-4 versus Romney in these matchups.  Moreover, while Romney and Obama split the first six matchups, Obama has won four of the past five.