Even before seven-term Republican representative Tom Davis announced his retirement, Keith Fimian was planning to run for his seat in Virginia’s eleventh congressional district. It’s not that Fimian opposes Davis, it’s that he had been expecting him to run for the Senate seat being vacated by John Warner. The Virginia GOP had other ideas, however, and opted for a party-nominating convention, guaranteeing that the moderate Davis would be passed over for the more conservative former governor Jim Gilmore (who now trails another former governor, Mark Warner, by a wide margin). Davis, tired of clashes with the Republican leadership and the growing unpopularity of Republicans in Northern Virginia, chose to retire from the House of Representatives.

The eleventh district, which includes most of Fairfax and Prince William counties in the D.C. suburbs, has been trending more and more Democratic for the last few years, and Fimian is facing an uphill battle to replace Davis. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) targeted the seat early and has heavily supported the party’s candidate, Gerry Connolly. The Cook Political Report has the race in the “Likely Democrat” column, but, as Republicans try to minimize their losses nationally, this still moderately conservative district presents an opportunity for the GOP to fend off a Democratic wave.