On a lackluster evening for Donald Trump, one fact stands out as particularly ominous: Trump won a massive victory among people who voted early in Louisiana. But among those who went to the ballot box on election day itself, Trump tied with Ted Cruz. That strongly suggests that Trump’s campaign is taking on water.

Trump’s evidently declining support probably has something to do with the sustained fire he’s been receiving from Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio. (Though those attacks have done nothing to buoy Rubio himself.) But Trump may have also made a political miscalculation over the past week or so, as well. He’s become so confident in winning the Republican nomination, it appears, that he’s aggressively moving to the political center. He’s shaking the famed etch-a-sketch.