IN THE MIDST OF AN eight-day trip through Europe designed to assuage fears that his country is sliding toward chaos, Pakistani president Pervez Musharraf has reaffirmed that parliamentary elections will be held on February 18. Though the last year has certainly shown us that events in Pakistan are always subject to change, the election date should be considered about as stable as anything in Pakistan’s political scene. With less than a month before these elections, it is a good time to assess the influence that Benazir Bhutto’s assassination will have.

Even when Bhutto returned to Pakistan in October, “reform” (whatever that means in the context of Pakistan) was likely a pipe dream–but analysts thought a power-sharing agreement between Bhutto and Musharraf could bolster his increasingly unpopular administration and perhaps even lend some legitimacy to military action against the terrorist safe havens in the tribal areas. Bhutto’s Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) continues to be a critical force because although it is not the country’s only secular opposition party (the MQM and Awami National Party are still active), it is the only party of the type with true national reach. Unfortunately, the new PPP leadership faces internal conflicts and is unlikely to parlay public grief over Bhutto’s death into positive political change.