A Republican hasn’t won a Massachusetts Senate race since 1972, but Sean Trende writes at Real Clear Politics that GOP State Sen. Scott Brown has a better chance of pulling off an upset in the January 19 special election than you’d think. Trende takes the average swing in the Virginia and New Jersey electorates between the 2008 presidential contest and the 2009 gubernatorial races, and runs the numbers in the Massachusetts Senate race:
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