Playing with Partisan Identification

Published September 20, 2008 3:37pm ET



DJ Drummond takes a close look at the fluctuation in presidential polling over the last few weeks, and digs down into the partisan identification of respondents. He discovers something curious: multiple polls show John McCain holding steady or gaining among every partisan subgroup, yet losing ground overall. The only explanation for this is that the polls have incorporated a higher percentage of Democratic voters — either accidentally or intentionally. That begs a question: what would the polls show if the partisan breakdown were tweaked to reflect the historical norm.

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