[I]f Clinton can replicate the voting coalition she enjoyed in New Hampshire … she will all-but-clinch the nomination on Super Tuesday. I would expect her not just to win most states, but to win them by a wider margin. One of the big reasons is that, while Independents were a feather in Obama’s cap in New Hampshire and Iowa – they are barred from voting in Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Kansas, New York, and Oklahoma. The key word in the last paragraph is ‘if.’ We cannot simply assume that Clinton will replicate this coalition. After all, she failed to do it in Iowa. This is actually one of the most interesting dynamics of this primary contest so far.