The forecast less than 90 days out from Election Day looks pretty favorable for Democrats.
With the party’s presumptive presidential nominee, Joe Biden, leading President Trump by a wide margin in national polling, reports showing Senate Republicans in trouble of losing their majority, and now, Democrats appearing to be on the verge of picking up House seats in the fall, there could very well be a another “blue wave” come November.
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report shifted ratings in five races this week following Tuesday’s primaries in Arizona, Kansas, Michigan, and Missouri. Four of those moved in the direction of the Democrats. This would continue a losing trend for Republicans in the lower chamber after they lost control of the House during the so-called “blue wave” during the 2018 midterm elections in which Democrats flipped 41 seats.
Right now, there are 232 Democrats and 198 Republicans in the House. There is also one libertarian — former Republican Justin Amash — and four vacancies, including one left by the late Rep. John Lewis.
Two of the races suddenly in doubt for the GOP are those involving Republican Reps. David Schweikert of Arizona and Ann Wagner of Missouri. Those contests moved from “Lean Republican” to “Toss Up.” Both incumbents represent heavily suburban districts, a sector in which Trump is now struggling in the polls.
The suburbs, though normally considered traditionally conservative, could be the areas where Democrats could gain ground, said David Wasserman, who is House editor and political analyst for the Cook Political Report.
“Republican incumbents are in trouble in places like Cincinnati, St. Louis suburbs, Omaha, Nebraska,” Wasserman told MSNBC’s Joe Scarborough on Friday. “These are kind of the second-order suburbs where Democrats didn’t break through in 2018 but could actually pick up seats in 2020. In the past month alone, we’ve moved over 30 races in Democrats’ direction in our ratings.”
Wagner, who represents the St. Louis suburbs, beat her Democratic challenger in 2018 by 4 points despite significantly outspending her opponent, Cort VanOstran.
The congresswoman, who is a former Republican National Committee co-chairwoman and United States ambassador to Luxembourg, is set to take on Missouri state Sen. Jill Schupp, whose campaign tactic includes pegging Wagner as a “political insider and socialite” who sticks by Trump 95% of the time.
New House rating changes:#AZ06 Lean R to Toss Up#KS02 Lean R to Likely R#KS03 Lean D to Likely D#MI06 Likely R to Lean R#MO02 Lean R to Toss Up
Full article here (?): https://t.co/hLTrr03rmd pic.twitter.com/KeYnjrf2io
— CookPoliticalReport (@CookPolitical) August 7, 2020
“Today, even Republicans privately acknowledge Trump’s standing in these St. Louis suburbs is in free fall,” the latest analysis from the Cook Political Report said. “That tracks with the fact that, after 2018, Wagner represents more college graduates than all but one other House Republican.”
In the presidential race, Biden’s comfortable lead over Trump across most national polls shrunk in a new Hill-HarrisX survey that was conducted between Aug. 2-5. The poll found 43% of voters preferred Biden over Trump’s 40%. Biden’s lead dropped from the same survey conducted last month that showed him at a 7-point advantage over the president.
Only 5% of voters said they would cast their ballot for someone else if the election were held now, and 3% do not plan to vote. The Hill-HarrisX poll was conducted among 2,850 registered voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 1.84 percentage points.
Wasserman said the former vice president may find luck making his way through Trump country. He noted Biden has a chance to pick up a possible electoral vote in Omaha, Nebraska, once considered safe Trump territory.
“Joe Biden’s up 7 points,” Wasserman said. “That actually may be the likeliest Trump territory in the country from 2016 to flip to Biden.”
He added Democrats are doing better in the Sun Belt than in the past because of the metropolitan growth in states such as Texas rather than the Great Lakes region.
Wasserman said the best strategy for Trump would be to focus on states he won by a large margin in 2016, including Ohio and Iowa, before moving into swing states that will likely determine the outcome of the election.
“[Trump] needs to get those states in better shape before he even competes in the tipping-point states, the core battleground, the six states he won by less than five,” Wasserman said. “That’s where the presidential race really will be decided, and today, Joe Biden is ahead by between 4 and 7 points on average in Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin. Those six states are the ballgame.”
