Elizabeth Warren's fast rise in the 2020 Democratic primary field is over.
The Massachusetts senator's poll numbers shot up consistently in late summer and early fall, largely at the expense of first-tier rivals former Vice President Joe Biden and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders.
But her rise in support also brought added scrutiny, including how Warren, 70, planned to fund her "Medicare for all" plan, which would effectively end private health coverage in favor of a government program. Unlike Sanders, 78, who forthrightly says taxes on middle-class earners would rise in order to pay for his proposed version of Medicare for All, Warren says hers would be covered by a wealth tax on individuals with fortunes over $50 million.
The more Warren's talked about the details, the less support she's earned.
A RealClearPolitics average of national primary polls Thursday placed Warren in third place, at 14.2% support, behind Sanders, at 15.6%, and 77-year-old Biden, leading the pack at 27.8%.
That spread is a dramatic reversal from two months ago when Warren was in a statistical tie for first place with Biden. At the time, Warren was 0.3 percentage points behind Biden, with 26% support, compared to his 26.3%.
Since then, Warren has faced a cascade of polls showing her support in free fall. A Morning Consult survey taken Oct. 7-12 found Warren at 21%. By late November, the same organization found her support at 15%. A CNN survey taken at the same time found Warren earning 14% of support.
Early nominating states are a particular concern for Warren.
The last three Democratic National Committee-approved polls of likely Iowa caucusgoers have shown Warren in a dead-heat for second or third place with Sanders and South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, 37.
A RealClearPolitics average of recent Iowa polls — ahead of the Feb. 3 caucuses — has her in third at 17.7% support, behind Sanders with 18.3% and Buttigieg at 24%. A Des Moines Register/CNN poll taken from Nov. 8 through Nov. 13 had Warren at 15% support, a point above Biden and Sanders, and 10 behind Buttigieg.
New Hampshire, which neighbors Warren's home turf and holds its first-in-the-nation primary on Feb. 11, isn't looking favorable for Warren's campaign, either. In October and early November, Warren boasted support regularly in the mid-to-high 20s, according to numerous polls, with two CBS/YouGov surveys marking her support at 31% and 32%.
From mid-October onward, however, her support has more than halved. RealClearPolitics averaged her support at 14.3% support, behind Sanders at 17% and Buttigieg at 20%. One Emerson College poll had her tied with Biden for third place at 14%.
Nevada, the third Democratic state contest, with caucuses on Feb. 22, is Warren's best source of polling news so far. Twenty percent of likely caucusgoers currently back her, according to RealClearPolitics, although 19.8% back Sanders. Both trail Biden, who has 29% support.
But Warren's campaign has made little progress in South Carolina, a state where the primary winner has traditionally gone on to claim the Democratic nomination. Less than three months out from the Feb. 29 primary, polling averages have Warren in second place, at 16.3%, and earning less than half of his support.
Even if Warren comes up short of first place in the first four contests, she'll have little room for fallback on Super Tuesday on March 3, when more than a dozen states and entities vote. The biggest prize is California, a state being targeted by billionaire Michael Bloomberg, the former New York City mayor. A KGTV-TV/SurveyUSA poll in late November showed her support in California at 13%, well behind Biden and Sanders.
Though, in one bit of good news, a separate poll released Thursday found her behind Sanders by two points at 22% for second place.
