Off-year elections test Democrats’ 2026 prospects

Democrats capped off a year of encouraging election results on Tuesday with victory in a closely watched Iowa special election. That result, coupled with gains earlier this year, as well as historic trends, points to them enjoying wider success in the 2026 midterm elections.

However, strategists in both parties have cautioned against reading too much into off-year results. With fewer voters participating, these races tend to be driven by the most engaged and partisan voters, along with heavy spending and national attention that can skew results in either direction.