Prediction market company Kalshi permanently banned former Republican Rep. George Santos from its platform Monday and imposed a $71,356 penalty after determining that he manipulated contracts tied to his own attendance at President Donald Trump’s 2026 State of the Union address.
Kalshi alleged that Santos placed a series of wagers on whether he would attend the address and then made public statements about his plans to influence the price of the contracts. The trades ultimately netted Santos nearly $18,000, according to Kalshi and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the federal regulatory body overseeing prediction markets.
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The company said Santos failed to cooperate with its compliance investigation, prompting the permanent ban and additional financial penalty. The ban is Kalshi’s first lifetime ban.
Santos said Kalshi gave him a 30-day notice for the compliance investigation on Aug. 7.
“By the way @Kalshi is such an unserious company it violates its own notices and deadlines lol,” he wrote on X. “On August 7th they gave us a 30 day notice and today they leaked/ announced once again their frivolous nonsense.”
Leading up to Trump’s address, Santos had repeatedly discussed his plans to attend the State of the Union. At one point, he posted about what he should wear to the speech.
On the day of the speech, Santos posted that he would be watching “from an airport tv” and implied he would miss the event.
The CFTC subsequently investigated Santos and, in July, ordered him to surrender $17,569.98 in trading profits and pay a $17,500 civil penalty. Santos also agreed to a three-year ban from trading on prediction markets.
Santos settled the CFTC case without admitting or denying wrongdoing.
Santos also dismissed the accusations on his podcast, prior to the CFTC settlement.
“I guess people lost money,” he said in March. “Some people made unexpected money. That’s to show you how fragile these markets are.”
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Santos was expelled from the House in December 2023, after less than a year in office, following allegations that he fabricated significant portions of his background and engaged in financial misconduct. The House Ethics Committee also found evidence that he used campaign funds for personal expenses, including purchases at Sephora and Hermes, as well as payments for OnlyFans subscriptions.
Santos later pleaded guilty to wire fraud and aggravated identity theft and was sentenced in April 2025 to more than seven years in prison. Trump commuted Santos’s sentence in October 2025.
