House Speaker Mike Johnson’s (R-LA) razor-thin majority is expected to shrink after Tuesday’s special election in Virginia, where the Democratic candidate is likely to sail to victory to finish the term of the late Rep. Gerry Connolly.

James Walkinshaw, a Democrat who served as Connolly’s chief of staff and is currently a Fairfax County Board of Supervisors member, is likely to defeat Republican Stewart Whitson, a former FBI special agent and Army veteran.