Over the last few weeks, the Republicans have gotten a string of solid polls. Two recent polls have shown Republican Kevin Cramer leading of incumbent Senator Heidi Heitkamp by double digits in North Dakota. A whole mess of polls in New Jersey have shown that the incumbent Democratic Senator Bob Menendez is having much more trouble than a replacement-level Democrat would. And a recent YouGov poll showed Republican Rep. Marsha Blackburn with an eight point lead over former Democratic Gov. Phil Bredesen.

At the same time, Democrats have had a few of their own bright spots (e.g. Joe Manchin is maintaining a solid lead in West Virginia), and some non-polling factors (e.g. New Jersey’s general blue-ness in past elections) contradict what the polls are saying.