As President Trump packs up to retire to Florida after being impeached a second time, partisan division in the nation has reached a modern-day high, with nearly 8 in 10 fearing the outbreak of civil war.
In the latest Battleground Civility Poll, registered voters put the chance of war at 76 out of 100, the highest ever recorded and up from 73 in October after a summer of violent city Black Lives Matter protests.
“People for the last two years have seen us on the verge of civil war, and I still find that really, really dramatic data. I’m still shocked at that level,” said Democratic pollster Celinda Lake, who, with Republican pollster Ed Goeas, conducts the Battleground Polls for Georgetown University’s Institute of Politics and Public Service.
Goeas, referring to last week’s pro-Trump protests in the Capitol, said, “I think what we saw on Wednesday was kind of a climax to the four years of instability” under Trump.
But while the findings of the wide-ranging survey were gloomy about where the country sits today, the pollsters found signs of hope from people cautiously optimistic about cooling the tension.
For example, asked for predictions of civil war a year from now, the average dropped to 65.
“It’s heartening to see, even after one of the darkest days in our republic, that Americans still share a sense of cautious optimism about the future of our politics and political system,” said Mo Elleithee, executive director of the institute.
Many surveyed blamed Trump for the national division, but he wasn’t the worst. Topping him were Facebook and Twitter, partisan cable TV, and special interests.
And while those surveyed said they wanted unity and more civility, the poll revealed anew that what they really want is others to agree with them.
Goeas sized it up this way: “There is a Catch-22 there. The Republicans don’t trust the Democrats to take a deep breath and move there. The Democrats don’t have trust Republicans will take a deep breath and move there. And independents really don’t trust either the Democrats or Republicans.”
Added Lake, “People usually mean, ‘Yeah, come over to my side.’”
But she said there are lots of issues people agree on, including distribution of a coronavirus vaccine and a cash payment, and wish politicians would get over themselves and work out deals that benefit the public.
“They see politicians on both sides as out of touch, serving themselves, relishing the fight rather than getting things done,” she said.
But, despite feeling more divided now than ever before—Americans are optimistic about political unity.
On a scale of 0 to 100—with 100 being the highest level—voters were asked to rate the level of political division in the United States.
Here’s what we found. pic.twitter.com/oU2MlRb2uz
— Georgetown Institute of Politics & Public Service (@GUPolitics) January 13, 2021
