With a month left before Alabama Republicans pick a Senate candidate in a rare runoff, former Attorney General Jeff Sessions’s aggressive campaign has put him on a “path” to take back his old seat, according to an internal poll.
In the survey provided to Secrets, Sessions has cut his deficit to former football coach Tommy Tuberville in half, from 12 points to 6. The campaign’s pollster, On Message Inc., has Sessions at 43% and Tuberville at 49%.
“There’s clearly a path for Jeff Sessions here. He’s an underdog, so I’m not going to overstate it, but there’s clearly a path,” said On Message co-founder Curt Anderson. His telephone poll of 600 likely GOP primary voters had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.46 percentage points. “We were down 12, and so, that’s been cut in half, so there’s definitely movement,” he added.
Campaign officials shared the internal polling to counter a public survey that showed a 23-point gap. They claimed that survey was inaccurate and came from a firm that has been critical of Sessions in the media. It included live phone calls, text messages, and email and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.98 percentage points.
In the March primary, Tuberville edged Sessions 33% to 31%, prompting a runoff on July 14 to take on Democratic Sen. Doug Jones in November.
President Trump has played an outsize role in the campaign, endorsing Tuberville over Sessions, who he has criticized for recusing himself from the Russia investigation while attorney general.
.@realdonaldtrump Look, I know your anger, but recusal was required by law. I did my duty & you’re damn fortunate I did. It protected the rule of law & resulted in your exoneration. Your personal feelings don’t dictate who Alabama picks as their senator, the people of Alabama do. https://t.co/QQKHNAgmiE
— Jeff Sessions (@jeffsessions) May 23, 2020
Some outsiders believe that Trump’s continued criticism will keep Sessions from winning the seat he had before he was named attorney general, but the survey showed that voters are getting tired of the president’s taunts. It found that 69% want Trump to stop the attacks. Some 23% disagreed.
“The data suggests the voters are getting tired of Trump hurling petty insults at Jeff Sessions,” said Anderson.
What’s more, despite the attacks, Sessions and Tuberville have nearly identical approval ratings. Sessions is at 60%, Tuberville 61%.
And the survey confirmed that while Alabama voters overwhelmingly support Trump, they don’t take his direction very well. He is 0 for 2, for example, when it comes to picking senators there.
In the poll, 68% said they support Trump but won’t be told whom to vote for. Another 19% said they will follow Trump’s orders to vote for Tuberville.
Leftist radicals like Elizabeth Warren and her Antifa buddies HATE the police. Their violence, destruction, and anarchy will NOT win out.
Every single day, Law Enforcement bravely and selflessly runs TOWARD danger for our sake. https://t.co/ohFqyXvCMQ
— Jeff Sessions (@jeffsessions) June 5, 2020
The path to victory for Sessions, said campaign officials, is for the longtime public servant to raise his issues, including being tough on the recent riots, China, and illegal immigration, and to encourage people to vote for both him and Trump.
Even during the coronavirus crisis, Sessions has kept up a steady schedule of virtual campaign and media events, while his challenger has followed the pattern of the presidential campaign of Joe Biden and has refused to debate. “It’s a testament to his will to fight,” said a campaign spokesperson.
The survey took a long look at the Trump effect and found that 67% believe that Sessions and Tuberville will support the president in Washington. While Sessions and Trump have scuffled recently, Sessions has always publicly supported Trump and has reminded voters that he was the first member of the House or Senate to back the Republican’s 2016 presidential bid.
Voters are somewhat accepting of his reasoning to recuse himself from the Russia investigation due to his connections in the case. The survey said 48% believe that Sessions had to recuse himself. Another 36% said Sessions “failed to protect Trump.”
And a key finding was that a big chunk of Alabama Republican voters believe they can vote for both Sessions and Trump. Asked, “Do you agree or disagree with the following statement? Even though President Trump is supporting Tuberville against Jeff Sessions, as a Trump supporter, I can still vote for Sessions in the primary and be completely supportive of President Trump in his reelection this fall,” 79% agreed.
He made that point to Secrets in a recent interview. “I feel good about where we are,” said Sessions. “I’m reminding people that I was there on those issues. And those issues I advocated became the basis for why I supported President Trump and still do. … I’m the same person I was.”
