Welcome to Monday’s snow-bound edition of Washington Secrets, your guide to who’s doing the shoveling and who is being shoveled. Today we speak to one of the nation’s most accurate pollsters on the forces that will shape the midterm elections and the unknows that could throw off polls, we sift through thousands of complaints sent to broadcast regulators about Jimmy Kimmel, and we talk you through Trump’s new and old daily activity …

James Johnson, co-founder of J.L. Partners, nailed the 2024 presidential election. While many pollsters underestimated the level of support for Donald Trump, his final forecast before polling day gave the Republican candidate a 3-point lead in the popular vote and the biggest Electoral College advantage of any election model. Trump eventually won by about 1.5 points.