Welcome to Wednesday’s edition of Washington Secrets. If a friend sent you this and you’d like to sign up, CLICK HERE. Today we go full-on polling nerd to look at one issue that could be overestimating support for Democrats. But don’t get carried away — Republicans are still likely to take a beating. Plus, the bookmakers are coming for Katie Zacharia after her first White House briefing.

In 2024, a rash of cheap online polls skewed forecasts, underestimating Donald Trump’s eventual margin of victory.