The conventional wisdom of midterm elections rests on a basic premise: the political environment determines the outcome. When voters are unhappy with the economy or frustrated with the party in power, they punish the president’s party at the ballot box.

That logic still matters in 2026. President Donald Trump enters the midterm cycle facing real political headwinds. Recent Fox News polling found his approval rating at 41%, with only 34% approving of his handling of the economy and 28% approving of his handling of inflation.