On Thursday morning, President Donald Trump threatened to hit Iran “VERY HARD,” seize its main oil export terminal at Kharg Island, and take “total control” of its energy industry. By the afternoon, he’d canceled it all on indications that Iran had approved “discussions and final points” toward a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and constrain its nuclear program. In the space of a few hours, the war’s depressing denouement was compressed into a single news cycle: Trump blusters, Trump retreats, Trump desperately seeks a face-saving exit ramp.

The fact is that Trump is stuck. Militarily, he fears that a return to all-out war would carry even more damaging military, economic, and political costs for his presidency than he’s already suffered, with no assurance of corresponding strategic gain.