Obamacare enrollment will decline this year. A large share of that decline will result from people who never should have been counted as exchange enrollees finally being removed from the rolls. Much of the remainder will come from people who decide the coverage is not worth even the small share of the premium they must pay themselves. 

A new Paragon study examines sign-up data from the 2026 open enrollment. We estimate there are 6.2 million improper enrollees — more than 1 in 4 people with an Obamacare plan. These improper enrollees claim to be in the lowest-income category to receive the highest Obamacare subsidy, but their numbers vastly exceed what is plausible given Census Bureau data.