The Iranian regime is now at the weakest point in its vicious history. It no longer survives through genuine legitimacy, ideological loyalty, or a credible vision for Iran’s future, but through terrorism and repression, propaganda, and networks of operatives and loyalists beyond its borders. A Shia regime that once claimed to embody a revolutionary Islamist model for the Muslim world has been reduced to defending its existence through coercion, intimidation, disinformation, and the intelligence institutions protecting the ruling clerical establishment. If Washington is ever to take regime change in Iran seriously, this is the moment. The opportunity should not be squandered through another cycle of hesitation, containment, and strategic ambiguity.

The United States, particularly the CIA, should therefore begin developing a sustained strategy aimed at regime change — not nation-building. Iran is already an ancient, cohesive nation with a powerful historical identity, sophisticated society, and deeply rooted tradition of statehood. Nor should Washington manufacture another artificial opposition abroad and convince itself that it represents Iranian society. What is required is political will. The determination to pursue the end of the Islamic Republic must be unmistakable in Washington and Langley; without it, American policy will remain an exercise in managing the same problem rather than resolving it.