On Oct. 25, Aleksandar Vucic’s ruling coalition will face Serbia’s student protest movement and established opposition parties at the ballot box. Vucic, who resigned as president in September to seek the premiership, wants to extend his Serbian Progressive Party’s 14-year hold on power. The danger extends beyond whether his party manipulates the vote. His government could portray protests against the result as a Western plot, crack down on opponents, and accelerate state capture.

Georgia offers a preview of what could follow Serbia’s election. The ruling parties in both countries have spent years weakening institutions, intimidating critics, and tilting elections toward incumbents. The useful comparison is what happened after Georgia’s contested October 2024 vote. Georgian Dream turned an electoral dispute into an opportunity to narrow the space for opposition, watchdogs, and protest. Vucic has the tools to attempt something similar.