On Sept. 15, 2008, Barack Obama was behind in the polls, caught off balance by the Sarah Palin selection and in trouble for the first time since his nomination. Then the financial collapse blindsided his rival, caused a huge civil war in the Republican Party, and dropped the presidency into his lap.

It wasn’t the first time blind luck seemed to help Obama. When he ran for the Senate, his two serious rivals were sidelined by scandals that broke at the just the right moment, leaving him to cruise in against a far-right ranter (Alan Keyes) who had been brought in as desperate measure from outside the state. Obama became a celebrity and a presidential contender on the strength of one speech, and soon after that David Brooks looked at the crease in his pants and decided he’d make a really good president. The rest of the press corps agreed.