Pakistan’s downing of at least one Indian air force jet on Wednesday should not be viewed as a random crisis incident. Instead, it reflects a new period of escalating tension between the two nuclear powers.

The root of this tension is clear: Pakistan’s support for terrorist groups targeting India, and India’s increasing unwillingness to accept these attacks without military reprisal. Because Pakistan is equally unwilling to accept Indian retaliatory attacks, the escalation dynamics are set in place. While it’s likely that the current crisis, precipitated by a recent attack by Pakistani-supported terrorists on India, will blow over, we’re likely to see new military showdowns in the months ahead.