House Republicans are set to choose a new majority leader and majority whip Thursday and the outcome of their votes is likely to shape the party’s prospects for retaking the Senate in November. If Republicans regain control of the Senate, President Obama‘s agenda will be dead in the water for the balance of his administration. If Republicans fall short, however, even if only by one seat, then Harry Reid will continue to be the choke point between Obama and the lower chamber in Congress. In other words, it will mean two more years of the stalemate that has resulted in dozens of major pieces of legislation passed by the Republican House never even getting a floor vote in the Democratic Senate.

At the heart of the leadership votes is choosing a strategy to be followed between now and the election that will best serve the GOP‘s prospects. On the one hand, the thinking is to play it safe in hopes that voter dissatisfaction with Obama’s foreign policy fumbling, the stagnant economy and Obamacare will do the trick. Following the play-it-safe strategy means minimizing confrontations with the Senate and Obama that highlight the present inability of the Republican House to force the Democrats to compromise. That means forgetting for now trying to cut federal spending, repealing any of Obama’s regulatory onslaught or repairing the damage his ineptitude has done to the nation’s standing in the world. Call it the stand-pat-and-pray plan. This is approach is epitomized by the early frontrunner, Kevin McCarthy of California.