Retrospection at year’s end ought to be aimed secondarily at aiding course-correction — helping us choose more wisely in the coming year — and primarily at inculcating humility. The main lesson we need, every day, is that we don’t know nearly as much as we think we know, and the end of this year in particular is a great time to drive that home.

Nobody spent 2020 as planned. Nobody’s predictions of 2020 were correct on the most important points. So as I reflected on my own words and arguments for my traditional end-of-year accountability column, I granted myself some leeway. Still, I was wrong in some important ways.