Facing crude oil prices below $19 a barrel, Iran is very likely to cause an incident in or around the Persian Gulf.

Iran’s rationale here will be simple. The regime is facing a coronavirus outbreak of truly catastrophic scale, with many thousands dead. At the same time, U.S. sanctions have crippled the Iranian oil export market. That market being critical to Iran’s foreign capital generation, it can no longer provide for its domestic security agenda and public health needs.