The outcome of Nigeria’s recent presidential election was generally well received here in Washington. Incumbent Muhammadu Buhari — who four years ago became the first opposition party candidate to win a free and fair election in Africa’s most populous democracy — was reelected, to the relief of those in American diplomatic circles who have so much invested in his regime.

Buhari may have prevailed in the election, but his ability to govern is still very much in question. The Council on Foreign Relations’ Nigeria Security Tracker, for example, suggests the outlook for the future, based on weekly surveys of Nigerian and international media, is bleak.