The high stakes and complex probabilities of a snap British election

Published September 4, 2019 2:10pm ET



His Brexit plan defeated in the House of Commons on Tuesday, Prime Minister Boris Johnson is today expected to ask for Parliament to approve a snap election on or around Oct. 15. The stakes are huge.

To start, we have Jeremy Corbyn’s left-wing Labour Party opposition and the center-left, pro-Europe Liberal Democrats pushing for a new referendum on Brexit. With sustained polling suggesting a second referendum would result in a verdict to stay in the European Union, a Labour victory — or a Labour-Liberal Democrat coalition of some kind — is likely to cancel Brexit entirely.

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