Donald Trump’s presidency has been a roller coaster of constant controversy. It seems not a day goes by without a tweet or comment that, in normal times and under normal circumstances, might have sunk a presidency.

From this chaos has emerged a fairly consistent news-cycle rhythm that is particularly noticeable to those of us in the polling world; for every big dust-up, there is the subsequent ask: “Will this be the thing that costs Trump some of his base?” Cutting deals with Chuck and Nancy? Tariffs that hurt farmers? Stormy Daniels? Paul Manafort? Comey? Child separations at the border? Any of it?