Sen. Joe Donnelly has been bleeding out since Inauguration Day. Beleaguered in deep red Indiana, the Democrat has hunkered down, addressed some vulnerabilities, and watched Republicans tear each other to pieces over the opportunity to challenge him.
Tuesday is the Republican primary and, to the delight of Donnelly, the race is a contender for nastiest in the nation. Businessman Mike Braun is the candidate to beat, an exercise that could exhaust the Republican field. Internal polling from two campaigns shows Braun is the front-runner, with Reps. Luke Messer and Todd Rokita trailing. The first has Braun in front followed closely by Rokita and Messer far behind. The second places all three within the margin of error.
Braun has managed to make Messer and Rokita somewhat indistinguishable from one another. With what might be the most effective television ad of 2018, the businessman labeled the duo the “swamp brothers.” But what Braun dismisses as swampiness could also be the political acumen needed to win the primary and later the general.
This morning Messer cast his ballot in Greensburg, inside his 6th District, and Rokita did the same in Brownsburg, inside his 4th District. As Henry Olsen of the Ethics and Public Policy estimates, those two hubs will account for about 12 and 16 percent of the vote, respectively.
Polls close at 6 p.m. and until all the ballots are counted, nothing is certain. But if either congressman fails to sweep his own district, he won’t have much of a chance.
The next two big battlegrounds will be in the Indianapolis suburbs and in Fort Wayne, at the northeast corner of the state.
Two Indy suburbs to watch: Hamilton and Marion Counties. Both are wealthy and both are slightly more moderate than the rest of the state. This could be a pickup area for Messer, whose nice-guy campaign differs from the rest of the pack appropriating Trump tactics. Together, Olsen estimates that these two counties could make up as much as 20 percent of the vote.
The second most populous city in the state, Fort Wayne is a red anchor in an already conservative state. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, made his last stand here during the presidential primary before falling under the wheels of the Trump train. Olsen estimates that that city makes up a good 12 percent of the vote. Home of the 3rd District, it is one of the heaviest manufacturing areas in the country. Rokita and his tough but tempered Trump routine could go over well here.
There are the three places that Donnelly will be watching tonight. If Rokita or Messer fail to inspire their own districts, they are done for, and Democrats will prepare to seize on Braun. If those veteran politicos rally their districts and the Braun campaign fails to get out the vote, Democrats will prepare for a more conventional slugfest.
Donnelly is vulnerable, to be sure. The more brutal the GOP primary, though, the more likely he is to survive later in November.
