HANDICAPPING THE SOUTH CAROLINA RACE. COLUMBIA, South Carolina — The South Carolina primary is tomorrow, and according to the polls, former President Donald Trump leads former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley by anywhere from 22 to 36 percentage points, if you look at just the surveys that have been done in February. The race appears to be tightening a little, which is a normal thing to happen. Four polls finished before Feb. 11 all had Trump’s lead in the 30s, while the four most recent polls all have Trump’s lead in the 20s, from 22 to 29 points.

Looking at the RealClearPolitics average of polls, on Feb. 14, Trump’s lead was 33.5 points. Today, his lead is 25.3 points. That’s an 8-point change in a little more than a week. Again, it’s normal for a race to close a bit at the end. It happened in New Hampshire, where Trump won by less than the polls indicated. And of course a 25-point lead is still huge. But there does appear to be some movement.