The post-World War Two trans-Atlantic defense consensus is fraying. The United States is becoming increasingly introverted and unaware or unconcerned over the growing threat to Europe’s security. The stumbling Biden administration, the prospect of a second Trump presidency, and the accelerated militarization of Russia have convinced a growing number of European leaders that they must prepare for war with Moscow. Especially if Ukraine suffers any major defeats this year.

Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk has warned that Europe is entering a “prewar” era and the continent is not ready to defend itself. He is urging each country to significantly increase defense spending and arms manufacturing in preparation for an armed conflict with Russia. Spain has rejected his calls for readiness but French President Emmanuel Macron is becoming outspoken on the Russian threat. The calculation among NATO members bordering Russia is clear. Namely, that a U.S. withdrawal from European security without a clear Ukrainian victory would enable Russia’s armed forces to rebuild their capabilities and again threaten their neighbors.