Russia is withdrawing its “peacekeeping forces” from Azerbaijan’s Karabakh region and from the Armenian border. They are no longer needed because the advantages that Moscow gained from a frozen conflict in the South Caucasus could only be maintained for as long as the conflict continued. With Armenia and Azerbaijan moving toward a peace agreement and looking westward to help develop their economies, Russia is losing its most important leverage in this strategic region linking Central Asia with Europe.

The Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict remained frozen from 1994 to 2020, and during this time it was Moscow’s greatest tool of influence in the South Caucasus. It enabled Russia to engage in a divide and rule strategy and minimize Western engagement. Russian peacekeepers also patrolled Armenia’s external borders, in effect ensuring that it remained a captive state inside the Collective Security Treaty Organization, the equivalent of the communist, anti-NATO Warsaw Pact.