A plethora of analysts currently believe that a significant threshold in artificial intelligence models will be reached before the decade’s end. The most optimistic among them identify late 2027 or 2028 as pivotal, forecasting the emergence of artificial general intelligence during the Trump administration. 

Such predictions immediately encounter the challenge of clearly defining AGI. Most policy analysts adopt what I describe as a teleological or goal-oriented definition: an AGI is an AI system capable of performing the majority of human-level cognitive tasks, including those typical of a PhD-level researcher or a genius in specialized fields. This definition explicitly excludes physical or sensorimotor activities, thus encompassing primarily tasks executable in a digital environment.