Does Trump help or hurt? Assessing the GOP’s midterm dilemma

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The current posture of some congressional Republicans, including House GOP leader Kevin McCarthy and Sen. Lindsey Graham, reflects a clear belief that the party needs former President Donald Trump to be successful going forward.

McCarthy and Graham have leaned in on Trump’s popularity and suggested that his participation will be necessary to deliver a solid midterm performance. My hunch is that a Trump-centric strategy would have some chance of success in the House, where (a few exceptions aside) the races are confined to districts rather than being statewide. That would allow Republicans to play more safely to a specific proclivity among a district’s voters, such as support for Trump.

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