Every two to four years since 1992, we have found ourselves with a new realigning election — one that shifts things “forever” in one party’s favor, only to come apart shortly thereafter in a re-realignment or a draw.

Ideologies show no patterns of permanent dominance. There seems one signal of reliability: In each election of the modern political era (since 1980, when the parties became markedly more ideological), the presidency always has gone to the party that fielded the best politician, the most gifted and supple political animal, and the better political team.